UN Deadline Day for Iran
The deadline for Iran to respond to the EU3, and to suspend enrichment of uranium has arrived. And, surprise surprise, Iran isn't going to do what the Security Council asked it to do. The Times has a good article with much of the salient detail. Iran is continuing to enrich uranium. So, what happens next?
Well, much will depend on who has played their cards the best in the run-up to today's deadline. And the answer appears to be, Iran. The Bush administration has pursued a maladroit campaign of vilification of Iran and its leader. After all, John Bolton, Bush's UN Ambassador is much better at bluster than tedious activities usually associated with diplomacy -- like convincing other countries to go along with you by force of argument.
Iran, on the other, is the country where chess was invented. And while the crude posturing of President Ahmedinejad may have many thinking that Iran isn't any more sophisticated than Bolton, that would be the wrong impression to take from recent events. In fact, Iran has embarked on a subtle set of diplomatic moves that play very much to its strengths. And dealing with important countries that can help to influence UN actions.
China, for example, has to balance concerns on proliferation with its energy needs. (See an article here), and as an habitual opponent of sanctions also in need of Iranian oil, China can probably be relied upon to halt any drastic action against Iran - as long as Iran doesn't do anything too provocative.
In the Middle East, reaction is mixed, but except from Israel there is little enthusiasm for strong action against Iran. Indeed, despite some fears about a nuclear-armed Iran, many in the region admire Iran for its stance against the US (See here).
As UPI reports (amongst others) Iran has also reached out to India, itself a nuclear armed pariah, with negotiations today on a variety of energy-related issues including the Iranian nuclear program. India won't want to offend the US in advance of a Senate vote sometime in September for approval of the US-India civil nuclear cooperation deal (itself a breach of all international non-proliferation norms). However, as a non-aligned nation with a nuclear program, India won't want to distance itself to far from Tehran either, and the Iranians will be very pleased for any support they can get from New Delhi.
Even EU member Italy has said that the Iranian desire for nuclear power generation is legitimate. (See this article).
So, for Iran things seem fairly rosy, as this Gulf News article points out. The worst they can expect from the Security Council is some fairly low grade sanctions - perhaps a travel ban for top officials. And they can continue to produce heavy water and to enrich uranium confident in the knowledge that it is Washington and not Tehran that is isolated. The EU haven't offered enough to stop Iran going ahead - indeed the only thing that might is direct talks with the US and guarantees that regime change is off the table. But President Bush and his team simply lack the balls to challenge their own lunatic fringe, call Ahmedinejad's bluff and offer such talks.
The problem with all this is that it leaves Iran further down the road to nuclear weapons, or at least the capability to produce such weapons. The international determination to prevent proliferation to Iran is melting away, as the Iranian government surely calculated it would. The strident US position has not only strengthened the domestic position of the Iranian government, it has divided the international community which seemed ready to oppose Tehran's wishes.
So, unless Washington actually wants another war, their policy is failing badly. The Europeans don't come out of this much better, since their unity in negotiation is only skin deep. And in any case, they took on the task of talking to Tehran when only negotiations with DC would do.
And the tragedy is that, in all of this, the global non-proliferation regime is the first victim of American and European ineptitude. And in the Middle East, that is a really dangerous state of affairs.
Well, much will depend on who has played their cards the best in the run-up to today's deadline. And the answer appears to be, Iran. The Bush administration has pursued a maladroit campaign of vilification of Iran and its leader. After all, John Bolton, Bush's UN Ambassador is much better at bluster than tedious activities usually associated with diplomacy -- like convincing other countries to go along with you by force of argument.
Iran, on the other, is the country where chess was invented. And while the crude posturing of President Ahmedinejad may have many thinking that Iran isn't any more sophisticated than Bolton, that would be the wrong impression to take from recent events. In fact, Iran has embarked on a subtle set of diplomatic moves that play very much to its strengths. And dealing with important countries that can help to influence UN actions.
China, for example, has to balance concerns on proliferation with its energy needs. (See an article here), and as an habitual opponent of sanctions also in need of Iranian oil, China can probably be relied upon to halt any drastic action against Iran - as long as Iran doesn't do anything too provocative.
In the Middle East, reaction is mixed, but except from Israel there is little enthusiasm for strong action against Iran. Indeed, despite some fears about a nuclear-armed Iran, many in the region admire Iran for its stance against the US (See here).
As UPI reports (amongst others) Iran has also reached out to India, itself a nuclear armed pariah, with negotiations today on a variety of energy-related issues including the Iranian nuclear program. India won't want to offend the US in advance of a Senate vote sometime in September for approval of the US-India civil nuclear cooperation deal (itself a breach of all international non-proliferation norms). However, as a non-aligned nation with a nuclear program, India won't want to distance itself to far from Tehran either, and the Iranians will be very pleased for any support they can get from New Delhi.
Even EU member Italy has said that the Iranian desire for nuclear power generation is legitimate. (See this article).
So, for Iran things seem fairly rosy, as this Gulf News article points out. The worst they can expect from the Security Council is some fairly low grade sanctions - perhaps a travel ban for top officials. And they can continue to produce heavy water and to enrich uranium confident in the knowledge that it is Washington and not Tehran that is isolated. The EU haven't offered enough to stop Iran going ahead - indeed the only thing that might is direct talks with the US and guarantees that regime change is off the table. But President Bush and his team simply lack the balls to challenge their own lunatic fringe, call Ahmedinejad's bluff and offer such talks.
The problem with all this is that it leaves Iran further down the road to nuclear weapons, or at least the capability to produce such weapons. The international determination to prevent proliferation to Iran is melting away, as the Iranian government surely calculated it would. The strident US position has not only strengthened the domestic position of the Iranian government, it has divided the international community which seemed ready to oppose Tehran's wishes.
So, unless Washington actually wants another war, their policy is failing badly. The Europeans don't come out of this much better, since their unity in negotiation is only skin deep. And in any case, they took on the task of talking to Tehran when only negotiations with DC would do.
And the tragedy is that, in all of this, the global non-proliferation regime is the first victim of American and European ineptitude. And in the Middle East, that is a really dangerous state of affairs.
posted by Martin Butcher at
2:29 pm
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